Fig. 5

$f_1$, $f_2$, and A for the ML model, evaluated at $\rho =-0.1$. We clearly see the difference in the order of magnitude between $f_1$ and $f_2$ for small ρ. Note that, although the average of A over one period is negative, it is positive for a non-trivial interval of θ. This corresponds to movement close to the stable manifold of the saddle node. Parameter values as in Appendix B.1